It’s official, the latest recession only lasted from February-April of 2020, with the United States being the fastest country to rebound, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Unprecedented federal and state support is the reason.
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue, in their monthly economic forecast, expects the federal transportation bill will add to their growth predictions highlighted below.
Here’s what the experts say impacts your ability to thrive:
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The value of products and services U.S. companies produce
STATUS: Fully Recovered
Personal Income
STATUS: Increased by 4.7% in 2020 (vs. 6.3% nationwide).PREDICTION: to increase to 6.6% by the end of 2021 all due to federal stimulus funds
Total Employment
We want our friends and neighbors to thrive and put food on the table for families. As the Wisconsin Department of Revenue states, jobs increases morale by spreading the workload among more people, and employment increases purchasing power by giving people discretionary income — all of which help our economy.
“Unemployed” definition = people do not have a job, have actively looked in the past four weeks, and are currently available to work.
STATUS: 7 million fewer jobs than February 2020 with large discrepancies between industries regarding job recovery.
- The services sector (positions that serve people, don’t make products) is down 4.9%
- The goods producing industries (raw materials & manufacturing) are down 1.6%
PREDICTION: 2021 will end up 2.6%. 2022: up another 3.6%
Wages & Salaries
STATUS: Grew by 0.1% in WI. While most industries are recovering, the low-wage sector is taking longer to recover:
- Down 37%: Arts, entertainment, and recreation
- Down 15.4%: Accommodation and food service
- Down 7.9%: Educational services
PREDICTION: growth of 8.3% in 2021 and 5.2% in 2022
Inflation
How much our money buys over time/purchasing power. We don’t want inflation to increase.
PREDICTION: the rate of inflation will decline from 3.3% to 2.1%
Construction Disrupted
Construction employment is an example of supply shortages costing jobs. Employment fell 8% during the recession, as well as labor shortages. The housing market, meanwhile, remains strong, with permits up 43% in 2021 and the median price of existing homes up 12%.
